|
| #The
Inger Letter-06/06/07- A glimmer from the future . . . has
been reflected upon increasingly here, as we're focused on the
(slightly varied) kinds of issues that we're contemplating
accumulating as the much-vaunted correction (whether essentially
inline or worse than forecast, for the most part) continues to
evolve. As suspected despite protest, internal distribution was
for all-intensive purposes masked for weeks by the repeated
major Average 'hail Marys' we called for; and that included the
new highs achieved in recent days, and as may occur (per our
outline in the audio voice-over-chart comments included
tonight). |
| #Trading
With The Trend 05/09/04- Time
to Consider the Next Wrinkle The last time we talked back in
late March, we were considering how that downturn would end. We
had questioned whether the SPX would bottom around 1170 or 1150.
At that time I said I am reasonably sure that we are about to
see the same sort of bottoming process take place in the SPX
contract in the current trade setting. Whether that plays out at
the current 1170 area or traces lower to use the 200 day moving
average around 1150 is really the question at hand, not whether
we are closer to an intermediate term trend change. The market
indeed bottomed although it went as low as 1138 or so and
overshot our 1150 target by another 1%. That was on the 20th of
April, almost a month after we last wrote. |
|
#Stock
Play of the Week- 08/07/07 - Tupperware Brands Corporation
manufactures and sells a broad line of consumer products for the
home. The Company's Tupperware products include food storage and
other containers, as well as a line of children's educational
toys, serving products, and gifts. Tupperware's products are
distributed worldwide primarily through the direct selling
method of distribution. |
| #John
Murphy's Market Watch-04/05/04-
While today's surprisingly strong jobs report was good
for stocks, it was very bad for bonds. Bond prices fell more
than two full points. The 10-year T-note, which rises when
prices fall, surged all the way to 4.14%. That certainly seems
to confirm the idea that long-term rates are finally starting to
move higher. There's good and bad news in that. It's good for
economically-sensitive stocks that do well in a stronger
economy. It's bad for rate-sensitive stocks that are hurt by
rising rates. In time, rising rates can be a bad thing. Over the
short-run, however, rising rates are viewed as confirmation that
the economy is getting stronger and the job picture is finally
improving. This week's sector rotations showed a more optimistic
market. The top sectors were technology, materials, and
industrials. The weakest were financials, energy, utilities, and
consumer staples. That rotation is reversing the more cautious
mood of the market during the first quarter when consumer
staples and energy were the leaders and technology was the
laggard. |
|
#Chart of
the Week-06/06/05- Back in April, I began showing in
the Chart of the Week various reasons why I thought the market
was likely to experience a correction. I thought those reasons,
which were based on market internals and the price action in
other markets, were quite compelling. What happened, as you now
know, was that the market did pull back a bit, then powered to a
new high prior to the anticipated correction. This is typical of
course: the market rarely follows the script exactly as we think
it might. Rather, the market always does it's best to make
traders second-guess when the intermediate-term direction is
going to change. That is not to say that the long-term and/or
short-term direction is easy, but by comparison, I do find
timing them easier than the intermediate-term. |
| #Trading
Lesson of the Week-06/01/06- One of the greatest
challenges in trading comes from getting to targets. The reason
is because it is one of the most difficult areas both from a
technical perspective (finding the right areas on the charts) to
a psychological perspective (staying with the trade while the
stock achieves that target. |
| #PartTimeTrader
Analysis- 05/10/04- Stepping back to the S&P Weekly
chart, we see that the week hit its high at the junction of the
5 Week Moving Average and the 10 Week Moving Average. But that
was early in the week. By Friday we Closed on the low, halted by
the 30 Week Exponential Moving Average, the same place we
bounced from 7 weeks prior, albeit from a lower point. Note that
we still have not yet Retraced down to the shallow Fibonacci 24%
line, which means the Pullback, in the context of the overall
Uptrend, is currently only Minor. And I could easily add, not
especially aggressive. |
| #Dow
theory Weekly-09/18/02-
As the costs of employee-benefit programs soar, more companies
are moving toward self-insuring aspects of their health
coverage. One firm benefiting from this trend is Delphi
Financial Group, a provider of a diverse portfolio of
employee-benefit products. Strong profits, fueled by solid
demand for the company’s excess workers’ compensation product,
have boosted the stock this year. Yet the shares, trading at
less than 12 times consensus 2003 earnings and well below
previous highs, have plenty of upside potential. The Forecasts
is initiating coverage of the stock with a "Buy" rating. |
| #Trading
Advice of the Week-07/21/2003-
Last lesson I reviewed how to help identify a change in trend
from a strong uptrend to a base or possibly a down-trend. We
tried to find ways to avoid the common mistake of ‘shorting a
strong stock’ just because it has rallied ‘too much’. This week
I will attack the other side, which is the most common problem
of all. Trying to ‘catch the falling knife’. This is the number
one problem for traders in my view. Buying a stock because it
‘can't go any lower’. This has been the source of many problems
over the last 2 years. While we can never be sure when lows are
reached, you can follow a strategy that keeps you safe and puts
the odds in your favor. |
| #Mutual
Funds- 07/28/03-
Toward the end of July 2002, the S&P 500 Stock Index was nearing
what turned out to be its current low for the 2000-2003 bear
market. At the time, I was recommending a 60% allocation to
stocks. In my 7/28/02 online column, I specifically recommended
4 stock funds. These funds, along with their Morningstar
category and one year return as of 7/23/03, are shown below: |
| #Technical
Trading- 02/02/04 - A second note of interest is the
stochastic. For so long the stochastic (shorter term momentum
measure) was quite overbought and remained that way for some
time. When you come off such a move it usually doesn't go
overbought and stay there for very long. Most of the time, the
momentum that has built up will carry for a while and the dip
buyers will likely show up thinking that the opportunity has
arisen. What I'm saying is that even if this is a more
substantial corrective move that is beginning, it's likely that
a move higher in the near term is likely due to the stochastic
reaching an oversold reading after a long strong period in the
overbought territory. |
#The FibTimer Market Report
-01/03/05- The Grass May "Not" Be Greener On The Other
Side
As market timers who trade trends, we are always on the lookout
for a new indicator or strategy that might give us a better edge
and improve results. Education and study never end. Many hours
are spent testing every conceivable timing method. We study
suggestions submitted by subscribers (always appreciated), ideas
garnered from analysts seen on TV, books offering trading
strategies and sometimes spend hours just trying to improve
current strategies. You name it and we have read it, studied it
and spent many hours researching it. |
| #Stock
Outlook 01/13/03- Now here is the current babbling about
the equities market [I just hate talking about the market
because the “market” is not how we make money. We make money by
selecting those industry groups that can have rapid and
sustained price movement with relatively low risk. Anyone can
flip a coin and buy JDSU and then sit on the curb and pray. It
is not our style. |
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