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This Article Contributed By

In my last post I said I thought the following week would see a continuation of the Volatility, which is what we got.

The short-term Trend remains down, as seen by this 30-minute chart of ES, the S&P Index Futures.

Stepping back to the S&P Weekly chart, we see that the week hit its high at the junction of the 5 Week Moving Average and the 10 Week Moving Average. But that was early in the week. By Friday we Closed on the low, halted by the 30 Week Exponential Moving Average, the same place we bounced from 7 weeks prior, albeit from a lower point. Note that we still have not yet Retraced down to the shallow Fibonacci 24% line, which means the Pullback, in the context of the overall Uptrend, is currently only Minor. And I could easily add, not especially aggressive.

Having said that, also note that the last 6 weeks have been in a Trading Range that has been unable to break back to the upside for a test of the high. We could still say we are in the low end of the Range, but the troubling aspect is that the highs of the last 6 weeks are "lower highs." What we will be watching for now is a Bounce or a Break of the 30 Week Exponential Moving Average, and then a possible, or should I say, probable Target of the Fibonacci 24% line. From that Fib line, if we Bounce to the 30 EMA and fall back, we would see that as a Confirmation of the lower high, as well as the formation of a lower low. In such a scenario the Fibonacci 38% line would be the next Target down.

The QQQ Weekly chart shows a very similar scene, with the low hitting the 45 Week Moving Average for the 3rd time in 7 weeks.

No, I'm not just copying one chart and renaming them . The Dow Weekly chart shows the 3 Indexes all conforming to the same pattern.

The Dollar Index has done well this year. Is a strong $ good or bad? Depends on which side you are on. One would assume a strong $ is good for the consumer, yet Inflation is rising. But then, "strong" is a relative term, considering how week it is from a year ago.

I'm expecting some more big swings or moves during the first part of the week, and would not be surprised to see a test of the Fibonacci 24% lines. Until proven other wise I will assume that is one of my weeks Targets. I will also not be surprised to see a dip below that to some minor horizontal Support levels. In either scenario, I would expect some kind of Test back up to the low of this last week.

Just guessing, of course, but that's what I do! If the news gets especially ugly this week, which is most certainly possible in this environment, we could hit my Intermediate Targets much sooner.

Have a great week. Be careful out there.


About Part Time Trader

Rick LaPoint is founder of PartTimeTrader.Com, a popular speaker, and creator of the unique FibCalc Fibonacci Calculator. His methods and market observations are topics of discussion in bulletin boards and chat rooms all over the world. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.

The opinions expressed are based on how Rick interprets Events, the Market, and the Charts -- unless otherwise noted -- and are not recommendations to buy or sell securities. Trading stocks involves risk. Never put your money on the line without a thorough understanding of what you are doing, and why you are doing it, based on your own personal experience. No Chart Pattern works out the way we think it should every time, so it is vitally important to have a protective Stop-Loss and/or Exit point planned before entering into a trade. Do your own research and testing before attempting any of these techniques.

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