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The Grass May "Not" Be Greener On The Other Side

As market timers who trade trends, we are always on the lookout for a new indicator or strategy that might give us a better edge and improve results. Education and study never end.

Many hours are spent testing every conceivable timing method. We study suggestions submitted by subscribers (always appreciated), ideas garnered from analysts seen on TV, books offering trading strategies and sometimes spend hours just trying to improve current strategies.

You name it and we have read it, studied it and spent many hours researching it.

Changing Methodologies To Meet Current Market Conditions

A good friend emailed me the following a few days ago, "A trader puts himself a great risk of failure trying to guess what the markets are going to do and changing methodologies to meet current market conditions."

How true. Yet so many investors do just that. They search for someone who will promise huge gains. Who will say they have achieved unrealistic profits over previous years. Who will promise them the world (just send your hard earned dollars).

They are out there. We have seen so many websites offering guaranteed profits of 100% (or more) a year we have stopped looking at them.

Some actual statements copied from market timing websites, "up over 1000% since 1999," "gains averaging from 61% to 263% annually," "Up 1500% in 4 Years," "annual returns above 100% with only few trades a month," "up over 900% since January 2000."

Please do not fall for such scams.

At FibTimer we do not mislead. We tell all our subscribers that losses are inevitable in trading. The trick is to keep them small.

If achieving profits in the stock market were no more difficult than going shopping at your local supermarket, everyone would be a billionaire.

FibTimer offers solid results by trading "all" trends, for subscribers who "stay" with our strategies and do not exit at the first small loss or inconvenient news event.

The Grass Is "Usually" Greener During Drawdowns

Typically, market timers experiencing a drawdown are most tempted to change methodologies. If the grass is always greener, it makes sense it is vivid green when your strategy is experiencing a loss.

But changing methodologies midtrade is almost always a losing proposition.

Traders who change strategies during a drawdown are attempting to "forecast" what the market will do next. There is no way to do this consistently, so the odds are the change is a mistake. ALL strategies have periods when the markets move against them. If a traders thinks otherwise, they are headed for losses.

You can always find an indicator that worked perfectly over the prior weeks or months. It is easy to find an accurate forecaster "after" the fact. It is an entirely different matter being accurate in real time and doing it consistently.

Emotions are the primary reason for changing a good strategy midtrade. We have written so many commentaries about emotions, this may be repetitive to the majority of our subscribers, but it is extremely important. Emotional decisions are almost always losing decisions.

During the early and mid summer months we had many subscribers who exited because of the market's volatility and sideways trading. At that time we had several small losses as the stock market just refused to break out into a trend. One subscriber even wrote he was leaving because, "...what if the markets NEVER trend again?" We have no idea how he solved that concern.

That sentence was a sure sign a new profitable trend was about to begin! Pure emotion bulldozing over common sense. When the majority give up, the next trend starts.

And, that is just what happened.

Our guess is, very few of those who left during this year's difficult sideways market are happy with their trading results since leaving. But those who stayed are now in the middle of solid gains, and they can see why it is important to stick with a good timing strategy through thick and thin.

Anyone who believes there will never be any "thin" is doomed to following all the hype and promises many timing services offer. They will never realize the profits that are attained by staying the course with a solidly performing timing strategy.

Don't Be Misled By False Promises

Following trends can and will result in occasional small losses. Because no one can accurately forecast the future, some trends will fail. But at FibTimer we exit those failed trends quickly, keeping losses small.

As long as "every" trade is taken, trend followers will "always" be fully invested in every real trend. They will "never" miss a trend!

Those who stayed the course during this very difficult year have now realizing solid gains. Having a few small losses mean little if you catch every trend and make solid profits in them.

Trend trading is the sure path to consistent long term profits. Strategies based on any of the many, many indicators are subject to long periods of time when those indicators fail. Do not be misled by anyone who promises he or she has found the perfect indicator. It does not exist.

Use common sense and stay with the trends to ensure you are "never" left behind in any rally, and are always protected during a bear market or prolonged decline (or profiting in a bearish position).  


Copyright (c) 2002-2005, StarTrade, Inc., All Rights Reserved.
FibTimer reports may not be redistributed without permission.

Disclaimer: The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical research and data believed reliable, but there is no guarantee that future results will be profitable.

Please Read Our Disclaimer



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